No one has all the answers. No one.

I saw this amazing program on CBC about 'experts'. Seems two different research guys, unbeknownst to each other, had been tracking almost 400 experts each over 20 years. They wrote two different books on the subject. They tracked all of the expert predictions and matched it up to what really happened later. The writer's findings were pretty much identical.

Bottom line. Most experts and their opinions are 95% wrong.

And, this was their biggest finding, the more absolutely sure of what they were saying about something the more wrong they tended to be.

Ever hear someone say you must do this? Or, you'll never be a success playing that music? Or, that format has no shot. Or, we can do just fine with 1/2 our staff. Or... you're nuts not to have your stations into social media? Are they in the 5% or the 95%?

Let me plant the above into your memory. Always remember it. The above is 20 years of facts, figures and research by those authors. It's not opinion.

To argue against it is like arguing that the sun has a light switch that someone in Thailand turns off at night and back on in the morning.

To see this concept in today’s real world, you only need to watch the movie, The Big Short. It is the true story of the crash of 2008 and financial collapse. In it, out of perhaps 400,000 of the world’s best economists, government experts, hedge fund managers, bank CEO’s politicians, etc…only 1 lone guy saw the 2008 crash coming. One single 35 year old guy, Michael Burry. He literally cashed out for Billions. Everyone else was spectacularly wrong. One could make a case that those experts were actually functioning idiots. The most stupid of the stupid.

But alas, they’re just normal humans who people think of as experts.

95% of Experts are almost always wrong.

So what do you do? Try to be somewhat contrarian. Be sceptical about almost everything and always look for 'why?'. Most people can't give you their own 'why?' to their theories. They’re copying someone else. Or, their answer realistically makes no sense. Question everything experts tell you unless they've got lots of reasonable reasons why they're saying what they're saying.